Accounting for systemic complexity in the assessment of climate risk

Widespread changes to climate-sensitive systems are placing increased demands on risk assessments as a foundation for managing risk. Recent attention compounding and cascading risks, deep uncertainty, “bottom-up” assessment frameworks have foregrounded the need account systemic complexity in methodology. We describe sources of highlight role formal sense-making device that enables learning organizing knowledge dynamic interplay between system its (climatological) environment. boundary judgments core concern assessments, helping create islands analytical cognitive tractability complex, uncertain, ambiguous world. then point three key concepts—boundary critique, multi-methodology, second-order learning—as critical elements contemporary practice, we weave these into an overarching framework better climate Throughout history, natural human coevolved with patterns weather through complex interacting processes learning, innovation, adaptation.1Burke A. Peros M.C. Wren C.D. Pausata F.S.R. 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